The Global Plastics Treaty Is About to Get Gutted—Here's Why That's Exactly What Industry Wants
Cutting Through the Plastic Industry's Latest Spin
What Just Happened
Two legal experts just published a roadmap for making the global plastics treaty work—and it reads like a last-ditch effort to save negotiations that are headed off a cliff. With the next round of treaty talks scheduled for August in Geneva, Ian Johnstone and Joshua Lincoln from Tufts University are essentially saying: "Here's how to build a treaty that can evolve and strengthen over time, because what we're getting in August might be pretty weak."
The subtext is damning: Even treaty supporters are now strategizing around the assumption that the final agreement will be watered down.
Why This Matters (And Why You Should Be Worried)
The experts' analysis reveals something that mainstream coverage won't tell you: the plastics treaty is being designed to fail from the outset.
Here's what's happening behind the diplomatic language. The December 2024 negotiations were extended to August because countries couldn't agree on the most basic question: Should this treaty reduce plastic production or manage waste better?
The US position, announced this month, tells you everything: America now supports "reducing plastic pollution, not stopping the use of plastics." Translation: We'll recycle our way out of this crisis, just like we've been "recycling" our way to success for the past 30 years.
This isn't about environmental protection—it's about protecting the petrochemical industry's fastest-growing market. With oil and gas demand potentially declining, plastics represent their financial lifeline. 99% of plastics are still fossil fuel-derived, and the industry isn't about to let a UN treaty threaten that cash cow.
What Everyone's Missing About These "Process Mechanisms"
The experts propose five mechanisms to make the treaty adaptable over time: national reporting, scientific input, compliance committees, majority voting, and amendment processes. These sound boring and bureaucratic, but they're revolutionary.
Here's why: Every other approach to plastic pollution has failed because it relies on voluntary corporate action and recycling theater. These mechanisms would create the infrastructure for real accountability.
Take the national reporting requirement. Countries would have to publicly document their plastic footprint annually, not just how much they claim to recycle, but also how much plastic waste they generate and where it ends up. No more shipping waste to Southeast Asia and calling it "circular economy."
The scientific input mechanism is equally crucial. Currently, the plastics industry funds most research on plastic pollution, and surprisingly, their studies consistently find that recycling and "advanced chemical recycling" can help solve the problem. Independent scientific committees would provide a reality check.
The Real Stakes in August
What the experts don't say directly—but their entire analysis implies—is that industry lobbyists are winning. The treaty negotiations have shifted from "How do we end plastic pollution?" to "How do we create a framework flexible enough to maybe address plastic pollution someday in the future?"
This is the same playbook that gutted climate action for decades. Start with voluntary measures, promise technology will save us, create complex trading mechanisms, and delay binding commitments until "more research" is done.
The proposed mechanisms could work, but only if negotiators include them with teeth, such as majority voting rules instead of consensus requirements, independent experts instead of government-appointed industry representatives, and mandatory reporting instead of voluntary guidelines.
What This Means for You
If the August negotiations produce a weak treaty—which seems increasingly likely—don't expect the next round of corporate plastic pledges to be any more meaningful than the current ones.
The 2018 New Plastics Economy Commitment, where corporations promised 100% reusable, recyclable, or compostable packaging by 2025? That deadline already passed, and the industry missed it spectacularly.
Chemical recycling, the industry's latest silver bullet? Still struggling to scale beyond pilot projects, while plastic production continues to grow exponentially.
Bottom line: The window for a strong global plastics treaty is closing fast. Suppose negotiators opt for industry-friendly "flexibility" over binding obligations in August. In that case, we'll obtain another toothless agreement that allows plastic pollution to continue spiraling out of control, while everyone congratulates themselves on "multilateral cooperation."
The experts' roadmap could save this treaty. However, first, negotiators need to stop treating the petrochemical industry as a good-faith partner in resolving the crisis it has created.
Do you have thoughts on the plastics treaty negotiations?